Kick Russia out of G-8? Bad Idea

Big Bad Russia. The New Russian Empire. The Crazy Bears. Sovietskis. The Cold War is Back.

All these things are currently being said about Russia in the continuing aftermath of the Georgian invasion and South Ossetian conflict. We've learned something about the character of today's Russia that we previously suspected but didn't have solid actions as proof for: Russia is being reborn and it is hungry. The Russian Bear is ready to tussle with anyone who gets in its way. Currently the Russians are keeping it local and safe, preying on breakaway provinces and nearby neighbors who aren't a part of NATO and aren't too close to China or the US.

So... how do we punish Russia? Senator Lieberman (I-CT) and Senator Graham (R-SC), both surrogates for Sen. McCain's Presidential bid, are advocating removing Russia from the G-8. Hmm.. seems reactionary and not very well thought out. This is the kind of politics that could have worked eighty or more years ago but nowadays you need to do like the mafia and keep your friends close and your enemies closer. We need to basically be sleeping with Russia (and China) so we can monitor them and be able to influence their actions more. I know that for you academics out there it sounds like I've taken a liberal (in the Kantian use of the word) position however my realism is still intact, worry not.

One of the many lessons taught to us by the successful foreign policies of the Reagan Administration was that engagement doesn't have to mean capitulation or even compromise. When Reagan and H.W. Bush met with Gorbachev it created a personal connection that kept a dialogue open and both sides were open with their criticisms of the other. Much the same must exist for the Russians and Chinese. In Russia's case it was a lack of effective dialogue and a distracted Administration that allowed the Georgian Crisis to come to a head without US intervention of any kind. In the end French President Sarkozy looks like a hero brokering the peace deal that exists. The US did not even send an serious diplomatic mission or a contigent of Senators until long after the deal was agreed to on both sides. Sad.

Kicking the Russia out of the G-8 is not just a terrible idea, it's also impossible. Try to get the other members to agree to expelling Russia, not going to happen. First off, let's face it - Russia is sitting on an oil well and they can pump it out faster than any other country in the world. They may not have enormous reserves but they sure do have the infrastructure to get it out of the ground and into a barrel quickly. No one wants to mess with an oil country right now... especially now. Second, everyone else in the G-8 is a part of NATO. Kicking Russia severs an important international forum for Russia and NATO to keep the dialogue running. Lastly, It is just waaaay to rash. It is as if the US is throwing a tantrum whenever things in the international area don't go it's way. Just because we can't control things like we used to doesn't mean we need to go out and lose our heads. Keep your cool and try to figure out how to get back on top or maybe just further up then anyone one else...

Smart Foreign Policy will lead to a Smarter and Strong America.


Links:

Lieberman: Kick Russia out of G-8 - Think Progress

Medvedev to World: I'm just imitating Bush!

One thing you might learn about in Law School is a little something called 'precedent.' According to the American Heritage Dictionary, "Precedent" is an act or instance that may be used as an example in dealing with subsequent similar instances and according to dictionary.com it is any act, decision, or case that serves as a guide or justification for subsequent situations. This isn't an English lesson though, its just a clarification. When you do something and declare that it is legitimate then in the future when someone copies you it is difficult to object without looking hypocritical. Case in point: Georgia/Russia and Iraq/US.



Both Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin are claiming that the invasion into Georgia and the subsequent bombing campaign are very much in line with the international precedent created by President Bush in Iraq because they claim they are only protecting the people of provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia from "oppression and tyranny" of the Georgian government. Hmm... at least those two are sticking to that story instead of concocting some intelligence about a nuclear program. What can President Bush say to that? Not much.



President Bush, along with political leaders and thinkers from the Right and Left, are very worried about this military strong-arming into the Caucuses Region by Russia. The problem paritally contributed to the fact that the United States has always been looked at as a progressive leader in Human Rights and International diplomacy (which was good) and then now it seems that even with diminishing global reach we have created a precedent in a world that we are less able to control. Twenty or even ten years ago when the US wanted something to be stopped.. I mean seriously wanted an international action to stop, it could have its magic hand and threaten beligerants with something that would really hurt. Nowadays the US is mired in two international conflicts, talking about a third one, has a housing/banking crisis, dealing with record high oil prices, and has seemingly lost its grip of international organizations. Reapetedly discrediting the UN in 2003, the Bush Administration unwittingly shot itself in the foot, losing one of the best legitimizers of American power and instruments of Western foreign policy.

While the US stagnates its power (and loses some as well) the rest of the world are racing to get just a little closer to the hegemonic level the US has achieved. Russia is resurgent, China is booming, India is growing, the EU is consolidating and expanding, but still there is no greater power than US foreign policy... unfortunetly we have set a terrible precedent and it will take at least five years to undo the damage.

Links:

Georgia-Russia: Medvedev speaks to the world - CNN
Overview of Georgian Conflict - Wikipedia

Georgia invaded by Russian Military

Save the Peaches.. ok, but seriously this is a problem.

Since the mid-nineties the break-away country of Georgia has been at odds with the Russian Empire Federation. The dispute has been about an region called Ossetia, whose people believe that they are more Russian than Georgian and thus use Russian currency and speak Russian. Since their call for independence from the newly independent Georgia problems have been brewing...

This flare-up should really send a message to the Global Community, especially the European Union, that "New" Russia is just "Old" Russia with a PR department. Remember back in the day (or perhaps you've just studied it, like me) when the ol' USSR would decide it needed to crush a thorn in its side it would just roll in the tanks and claim it was just taking care of a problem in its "sphere of influence" - that was the old way... The new style of Russian foreign policy is just a little tweaked but basically the same. Let's walk through it together:

1. Russian Leader wakes up... there are problems allover the place (mostly created by his own corrupt regime and mafia control)
2. Russian Leader decides that he ought to solve a problem, scare all his rivals at the same time, and give the people something to cheer about in a nationalistic way
3. Russian leader points the a surrounding country on a map where there have been some problems and tells his military leaders to invade it
4. Russian leader and his foreign ministry fabricate a story about said tiny country's efforts to "abuse" the human rights of Russians or "interfere" with Russian interests
5. (If possible) Tie that country in with the War on Terror
6. Issue strict ultimatums and impossible conditions and call it all 'diplomatic talks and failing to find a diplomatic solution due to a lack of cooperation on the opposite side'
7. Remind people that all Russia is doing is just protecting its people and their interests
8. Russian Leader waits for the opportune time (preferably while everyone else is watching some kind of global spectacle) to launch the invasion
9. Invade
10. Try to block out the news, deny anything wrong is going on, , and then ignore foreign criticisms
11. Repeat claims of protecting interests
12. Continue blasting the living daylights out of target country
13. At some randomly decided time: stop, declare victory, and have a massive military parade through Moscow

There you go! The "New" Russian model for invasions of neighboring sovereign countries. In the USSR you just had steps 1, 9, 10, 12, and 13.

The truly sad thing about this new Georgian incursion is that Russia has been harassing this poor little country for years including cutting off their gas and oil supplies. That's harsh! In the age of live coverage and hyper-media reactions it seems the Olympics have acted as an override switch to the news of hundreds, possibly thousands, of villagers and civilians being slaughtered by nearly round-the-clock bombings of civilian and military targets. The airports and roads have been crushed and a long line of at least two hundred tanks and armored personnel carriers have been seen entering the country according to recent reports but hey... I'd rather talk about Micheal Phelps or that Chinese hurdler! I guess Russia still knows when to orchestrate an attack when no one will care about some 'insignificant' country... sad. Very sad, indeed.

I will try to keep track of this story and keep you all posted if possible.

Whelp.. I guess I'll just sit around here and wait for the KGB to come and eliminate me. Until next time, please leave some comments for you comrade in arms.