The Palin Disaster

My friends, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska has turned out to be quite the disaster.

There are so many reasons why after a couple month acting as the Republican Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin has failed. First off let me say that she did a great job energizing the Republican base. I'm talking about those die-hard Republican voters who were a little apprehensive of Senator McCain's maverick attitude and record. She brought those Republicans into the fold and gave them a person to cheer on as well as well as acting as a symbol of John McCain's efforts to reach out to evangelical and far-right Republicans. She was needed to rally the (relatively new) base of the Republican Party and liven up the Convention. Then...

What happened after that?

Negativity - Sarah Palin came out swinging at the Convention... although I didn't appreciate some of her more unfair attacks, I understand that is a part of her job as a Vice-Presidential candidate. Remember, I just said "part" of her job, not ALL of it. Since the RNC she has not stopped and the attacks are getting a wider scope. Wat started with attacking Obama has widened to include Biden, the Democrats, people who vote Democratic, and finally all people who live in states that vote Democratic. I can understand the first two but attacking voters who don't live in "Real America" (the part of America that votes "R") is just plain ridiculous. McCain ought to smack her upside the head and remind her that he needs Democrats and Independents to vote for him if he wants to beat Obama. Remember, in most large campaigns the key is Independents.


Lack of Experience - Gov. Palin's lack of experience and knowledge robbed the McCain camp from their most honest and sincere attack of Barack Obama, his lack of experience. Obama has had a few years in the Illinois State Senate and four more in the US Senate, not a whole lot when lined up side by side to the Senior Senator of Arizona. Obama has never been a Committee chairman or had a leadership role within the Senate unlike Sen. McCain. I know, I know.. some say this argument is weak because of other factors that can make up for experience.. but the attack is a honest and clean one. When Gov. Palin arrived at the scene this argument disappeared. I know one of the talking points often used by Palin fanatics is that she has more "executive experience" but let's face it small town mayor, PTA member, an undergrad degree (barely) from 5 different colleges/universities/community colleges, and then two years as Governor do not stack up nicely against Law School, State Legislature and US Senate experience. Remember folks, quality not quantity. Her lack of experience and knowledge of federal government and its inner workings in certainly something that could be remedied with a few months on the job but the same could be said of Sen. Obama and that takes away all the experience attacks that we heard between the end of the Democratic nomination and the pick of Palin.


Scandal/Ethics - Adding someone as your running mate whose name is already embroiled in a scandal involving family and government firing in her home state by well-respected members of the state is risky. Same goes for someone is known for clearly rewarding friends with government positions is also risky. Doing both is well... plain stupid. The Palin disaster really begins with her actions in Alaska, which although seems far away, from the "lower 48" as they call us, is still going to get into the news. Sen. McCain's image is that of a reformer who wants to change Washington and sweep out dirty deals and dirtier politicians not pick one who has used millions in earmarks, fires state troopers at will, and hires cronies. He bruised his own image and once again opened up an attack route that the Obama campaign could use on him without fear of much of a counter-attack.

Not Press Friendly - When a candidate is ahead in the polls they suddenly make like a clam and shut up when it comes to the press - no need to give the press material to snipe you with. When you are behind you talk, talk, talk until the press give you free coverage and buddy up to you.

Celebrity - Sarah Palin came up too quick. Usually the position of Vice President means that after the President serves his/her four or eight years, the Vice President can run with all of their new found experience and support. That's why an experienced Presidential nominee would pick a less known person to be their running mate, to bolster their own weaknesses and sort of give future direction to their own party. By the selection of John McCain of Palin he has for all intents and purposes rocketed Sarah Palin to rock star status amongst Republicans and that's not good. Sarah Palin is a rural white who governs a rural mostly white state in its own region, that doesn't play well with the majority of the electorate. Come 2012 if McCain doesn't win or 2016 if he does, the Republican nomination is almost certainly going to include Sarah Palin's name and with her popularity already she may just win... which means that unless a miracle occurs or the demographics of the US suddenly and rapidly go to the rural areas (and non-whites disappear), Republicans will lose again. She is now a political celebrity, and why? What has she done to deserve Republican recognition? When did she do something impressive or gutsy that earned her major political cred? Why should I listen to her? She is a Governor. I would even venture to say a pretty good one for Alaska (outside of the ethics scandal). That shouldn't make her a star in a political party, that makes her semi-important but not a star

Conclusion - In conclusion, I wasn't a big fan of Palin, then I got to know her and I have decided that I both like her a lot less and that she is losing this election for John McCain, a man I respect very much.

Why the polls don't matter

I know.. you might be expecting a lecture here about the inherent faults of a system that has become "too" democratic, a system that has morphed into a sick popularity contest instead of a competition of values and ideas.

Instead.. I'll actually be talking about polls. Recently there has been a lot of talk about John McCain's sudden jump (up) in the national polls and how that could effect the outcome. The main stream media is talking about comeback from behind winning or a possible Sarah Palin or Convention bump. All this talk about national polls is just misleading the American public. It is disgusting.

We live in a representative democracy not a direct one. Like it, love it, or hate it that is the truth. So what the media should be focused on are electoral votes and individual states (specifically battleground ones) and their leanings. I'm sick of hearing that such and such candidate has a 2.1 lead or questioning if Barack Obama "losing his lead" in "nationwide" polling... it DOES NOT MATTER!

Obviously polling matters for candidates, it shows them where they excel and where they lag in certain segments of the population. Polling can unlock the secret for candidates to win a certain battleground state by working on segments where improvement is possible. Polling, however, is not everything. I do not constantly look up and memorize polling stats like Dick Morris or Karl Rove nor do I simply not pay attention to them like... every democratic candidate because they believe in the "power" of their "message." Idiots.

To conclude, the Electoral college is the way we currently elect our president so that's the only way to truly handicap or predict the winner/loser of this race.


By the way in case you are wondering, at the time of this post's publishing the count according to Pollster.com is:

Strong Obama:179
Leaning Obama:59
Total Obama:238

Strong McCain:133
Leaning McCain:91
Total McCain:224

Toss-Up:76

Meanwhile, Realclearpolitics.com says:

Strong McCain:172
Leaning McCain:55
Total McCain:227

Strong Obama:157
Leaning Obama:50
Total Obama:207

Toss-Up:104

Obama/McCain and the end of Civility

There was once a time when everyday was a sunny day, you could leave your door unlocked all the time, and politicians had some sense and civility. Those days are over.

This election, as almost every election of the past 50 years, has turned to negative attacks and "gotcha" moments instead of issues and facts. Is this trend getting worse? Can it ever get better? Recently McCain released an ad admonishing Obama for supposedly calling Palin a pig... but if anyone listened to the phrase before and after it or listened to it within the context of what he was saying they'd know obviously that he was referring to the new "Change" bandwagon that Republicans have gotten onto. Now Obama has decided that due to the new more negative tone that Republican ads and stump speeches have taken that they will allow and no longer condemn 527's (which are independent political groups not under Federal Election Commission law) if they release ads attacking McCain-Palin in a very negative fashion. A kind of a signal that the gloves are coming off.. and the Obama campaign is ready to rumble.

You notice that? I just used a boxing reference. Boxing. Boxing is just the opposite of politics. In boxing you use brute physical strength to pummel your opponent, in politics you use words and ideas to convince the audience that you are more worthy and have their values and best interest at heart. I am not trying to say that politics has always been civil but there was once a certain measure of a person's honor that only allowed them to stoop so low. Today it seems that respect and honor are gone.. and instead we have the win-at-all-costs ideology. I would rather lose an honorable man than win hardly a man at all.

What are your thought? How can we as a populace force politicians to talk about the issues instead of focus on scandals and missquotes?

Hillary's Media Shenanigans

Hillary Clinton has a secret you don't know about...
and you won't, either.

Hillary Clinton's campaign has led a strong effort on keeping the lid on their most embarrassing moments, ties, and comments. Clinton's Communications Director Howard Wolfson has been at the helm of the media control, crisis management, and sometimes story suppression. The question arises of just how does the Clinton campaign control the media surrounding her so well?

Many stories criticizing the Clinton campaign have come out but the most damaging stories have stayed relatively quiet (a campaign staffer, Mickey Kantor, calling Indiana's people "s**t") in comparison to the Obama campaign's disastrous media control ( Rev. Wright ring a bell?) The Clinton campaign is using some very heavy leverage to stop big media outlets from publicizing her most embarrassing stories, access to Bill Clinton.

Former president Clinton will always be a news story, win or lose for Hillary, and the Clinton campaign are betting their chips that no media outlet is going to want to jeopardize their access to him just to run a hot story on Hillary. So far, the pressure has worked. Barack Obama on the other hand has been sorely missing a good media crisis response team and it is costing him heavily. The Wright controversy and the "bitter" comments cost him a closer finish in Pennsylvania and are seriously hurting his numbers among whites, blue collar workers, and rural voters.

One of the Achilles heels of Hillary Clinton is the perception (rightly so, I believe) that she is disingenuous and ready to do anything to get what she wants. These media suppression tactics are definitely feeding into that perception and are not helping her readiness if in a huge coup she takes the Democratic nomination. Chances are that somewhere down the line, Republicans are going to really turn up the heat and expose something that she will be unable to suppress and what will happen next will be a toss-up, either a well-planned crisis management plan or a complete meltdown. That being said Obama who now has much more experience taking heavy media fire is really going to have to work on his team's response management, time after time his response has been too slow, too weak or too philosophical. Obama is really going to need to get his responses ready and right before the convention if he wants to show super-delegates he has a chance against a GOP that seems to be almost in desperation to take the White House again.

In Conclusion,

Hillary Clinton needs to.. "man" up and start taking some real heat, stop dodging the media
Barack Obama needs to.. work on his responses to attacks, win Indiana in spite of the scandals
John McCain needs to.. raise money, describe his own plan on how to make the situation in Iraq better, raise money, outline his plans for the economy and health care, raise money, just keep cruising until June.

Links:

Newsbusters: Story on another Clinton Campaign Finance Fiasco
Newsbusters: Is the Honeymoon over?
CNN: Hillary's Rove Tacitics

We have a Winner!

UPDATE - 11:45PM CST

With 99% reporting, the count is the same - 55% for Clinton, 45% to Obama. A big defeat for Obama but he did make some gains in the state since five weeks ago when most polls put him 20 points behind. Obama won 7 counties, including the city of Philadelphia, and Clinton won every other county... so the Obama effect was localized mostly to the southeast corner and center of the state. Up next, on May 6th is Indiana and North Carolina, both expected to be double digit wins for Obama. Well.. a long road lay ahead, and StrongModerate Blog will be there every step of the way! Good Night and Good Luck.


UPDATE - 10:26PM CST

93% reporting, Obama now up to 6 counties, but no gains overall still a 10 percent divide. Clinton patted herself profusely on the back in her victory speech.. Obama on the other hand tried to push the focus to the future, such as North Carolina, where the outlook is a lot sunnier. In terms of pledged delegates, 77 have been awarded - 40 to Clinton, 37 to Obama.

We'll be back one more time.. when we reach 99 or 100% of the vote.. stay tuned!

UPDATE - 9:50PM CST

79% reporting now, and Obama has 6 counties (the 6th being only by 2 points). The lead has stayed at ten points statewide 55-45. Now with over 75% of the largest three cities reporting, Clinton has a lock on Pittsburgh and Allentown and Obama has locked in a big victory in Philadelphia. In terms of pledged delegates, 73 have been awarded - 40 to Clinton, 33 to Obama.

More analysis as more information becomes available..

UPDATE - 9:17PM CST

Now with 61% of the vote in, Obama has control over 6 counties, Clinton doing well in every other one (there are two counties with no precincts reporting). Clinton now leads by 10 percentage points, which is above and beyond the hopes of victory the Clinton campaign had dreamed of and well above the six to eight percentage points that the Obama campaign had thought it would lose by.. I'll bet Obama is already dreaming of how much different North Carolina's Primary night will be like.

UPDATE - 9:01PM CST

With 51% of the count in, it looks like an eight point lead for Clinton. She now has taken Pittsburgh (by 12%) but Philadelphia and Harrisburg are still Obama zones by 22 and 26 points respectively.

The state is going more and more towards Hillary as Obama has a lead in only 4 counties.

More soon..

8:37PM CST

With just 6% of the vote counted CNN, then every other news outlet known to mankind, projected that Hillary Clinton would win the Pennsylvania primary. Wow.. how predictive of them!

We all knew that HRC would win, the question is by how much. Obama is doing well in urban areas (as he traditionally has) and Hillary is doing very well.. everywhere else, guess rural voters were a little "bitter". Obama has kept it close by keeping his lead in urban areas well above double digits in people-rich cities like Philly, Harrisburg, and Pittsburgh. Hillary however is keeping up with by winning almost every other country by around 60%.

As usual, the Clinton campaign is hailing this as a huge victory that will propel her to the nomination, however there is a distinct possibility that like the "victory" in Texas the majority of the state's delegates could go to Obama after the Super-Delegates make up their minds.

More analysis forthcoming...



For an interactive map, visit CNN's Pennsylvania Primary Results page
and CNN oft-updated coverage, here

Are We Done Yet...? Penn Primary

Now that about a dozen years after the end of the Texas primary, the Pennsylvania primary is finally underway.

Honestly, I have to predict that the vote will be about 5 points in Hilary's favor but since the Democrats don't care much for the popular vote it could turn out that Obama wins by virtue of the Super-Delegates (as he did in Texas).

The last "big" state in the democratic primaries (in population, Montana.. no disrespect) the competition was fierce and totally insane. Clinton and Obama will probably come out of this wishing they were born without a mouth to misspeak (anyone "bitter"?), a brain to mis-remember (duck.. its a sniper disguised as a little girl with a poem!), or a body to be present for anything (All-White Country clubs, Black Churches with disgruntled pastors, being married to Bill, being Black.. the list goes on).

I know that the madness won't stop for quite awhile.. but at least the citizens of one state won't be assailed for five long weeks of rhetoric and negative attacks for another 3 or so years when the next crop of Candidates start campaigning 2 years early again.

Now all we can do is relax while the people vote.. and wait for the results to come out.. and the news media to be filled with more spinning and scratching than a DJ Convention (or if you in Texas, that would be "chopped and screwed").

We will be back to provide to the feedback frenzy when the polls close, enjoy the peace while you can!

CNN Links:

Places to Watch In Penn Primary

Obama Lowers expectations of Primary

Absolut Apology: We Didn't Mean It!

Absolut Vodka apologized for the Inflammatory ad in Mexican print media and billboards saying it was not their intention that people outside of their target audience.

A recording on the consumer hot-line which was flooded with complaints (thanks to you, blog readers and so many others) had a pre-recorded message stating the following about the ad:
'

'In no way was it meant to offend or disparage, nor does it advocate an altering of borders, nor does it lend support to any anti-American sentiment, nor does it reflect immigration issues''

The company also said that it was unfortunate that the reaction was so "negative" because it was only meant for a target audience to "remind them of better times". In response to that baloney a web friend sent me this graphic (a possible ad in Germany, perhaps?), but don't get mad.. it would only be meant for Nazis:

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In some sad news , Charlton Heston has died at age 84 - a noted actor, he marched with MLK and was president of the NRA for five years. We here at StrongModerate blog applaud him for always fighting for what he believed in.

Absolut..

ABSOLUT-ly Despicable: Revisionist Historians

Absolut in a Mexican magazine and on Billboards in Mexico City decided to promote its product stating that "In An Absolut World" the drinker would be transported into a 1830's right-wing Mexican image of the Mexican nation. The ad no doubt will create controversy because it not only plays on immigration fears Americans have of the "invading" illegal immigrant waves coming from the Southern border but also plays into current radical right-wingers in the Mexican political system who still claim that Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California are Mexican property because the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo (signed in February 2, 1848) is illegal. So, Absolut decided to play on these latent hostile feelings in order to gain some traction in the Mexican market.

Not only that, the advertisement depicted the land of the Empire of Mexico in excess to what it actually ever had or claimed to have. This is a disgusting ploy and should not be accepted! Tell Absolut to take back their pandering lies and apologize. The issue of immigration is too important to joke about in such an inflammatory way.

Original Link: Here

COMPLAIN HERE! TELL THEM YOU DO NOT APPROVE!

Jeffrey Moran
Director of Public Relations and Events
The Absolut Spirits Company, Inc.
1370 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10019
USA
Phone, direct: +1 212 641 87 20
E-mail: jeffrey.moran@absolut.com