Tuesday, April 22, 2008

We have a Winner!


With 99% reporting, the count is the same - 55% for Clinton, 45% to Obama. A big defeat for Obama but he did make some gains in the state since five weeks ago when most polls put him 20 points behind. Obama won 7 counties, including the city of Philadelphia, and Clinton won every other county... so the Obama effect was localized mostly to the southeast corner and center of the state. Up next, on May 6th is Indiana and North Carolina, both expected to be double digit wins for Obama. Well.. a long road lay ahead, and StrongModerate Blog will be there every step of the way! Good Night and Good Luck.


93% reporting, Obama now up to 6 counties, but no gains overall still a 10 percent divide. Clinton patted herself profusely on the back in her victory speech.. Obama on the other hand tried to push the focus to the future, such as North Carolina, where the outlook is a lot sunnier. In terms of pledged delegates, 77 have been awarded - 40 to Clinton, 37 to Obama.

We'll be back one more time.. when we reach 99 or 100% of the vote.. stay tuned!


79% reporting now, and Obama has 6 counties (the 6th being only by 2 points). The lead has stayed at ten points statewide 55-45. Now with over 75% of the largest three cities reporting, Clinton has a lock on Pittsburgh and Allentown and Obama has locked in a big victory in Philadelphia. In terms of pledged delegates, 73 have been awarded - 40 to Clinton, 33 to Obama.

More analysis as more information becomes available..


Now with 61% of the vote in, Obama has control over 6 counties, Clinton doing well in every other one (there are two counties with no precincts reporting). Clinton now leads by 10 percentage points, which is above and beyond the hopes of victory the Clinton campaign had dreamed of and well above the six to eight percentage points that the Obama campaign had thought it would lose by.. I'll bet Obama is already dreaming of how much different North Carolina's Primary night will be like.


With 51% of the count in, it looks like an eight point lead for Clinton. She now has taken Pittsburgh (by 12%) but Philadelphia and Harrisburg are still Obama zones by 22 and 26 points respectively.

The state is going more and more towards Hillary as Obama has a lead in only 4 counties.

More soon..

8:37PM CST

With just 6% of the vote counted CNN, then every other news outlet known to mankind, projected that Hillary Clinton would win the Pennsylvania primary. Wow.. how predictive of them!

We all knew that HRC would win, the question is by how much. Obama is doing well in urban areas (as he traditionally has) and Hillary is doing very well.. everywhere else, guess rural voters were a little "bitter". Obama has kept it close by keeping his lead in urban areas well above double digits in people-rich cities like Philly, Harrisburg, and Pittsburgh. Hillary however is keeping up with by winning almost every other country by around 60%.

As usual, the Clinton campaign is hailing this as a huge victory that will propel her to the nomination, however there is a distinct possibility that like the "victory" in Texas the majority of the state's delegates could go to Obama after the Super-Delegates make up their minds.

More analysis forthcoming...

For an interactive map, visit CNN's Pennsylvania Primary Results page
and CNN oft-updated coverage, here

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