Obama's Cabinet

Well... not 24 hours after Senator Barack Obama became President-Elect all eyes have shifted from victory celebrations to the possibilities for the positions of the Obama Administration's Cabinet positions. Word on the street (aka in the Beltway) is that Obama will be making his decisions very quickly and will push to hit the ground running with his political mandate. Unlike President Clinton in 1992 there is an urgency to today's economic problems and if something isn't done quickly Democrats will be heavily punished in 2010 and 2012. But who could possibly serve in an Obama Administration? Who will it be?!

Let's focus on the three "big ones", listing a few names for each and in bold will be the one I believe that would be truly best suited for it and in italics the one that is most likely of those listed to actually get it.

Secretary of State:
Strobe Talbott - Brookings Institution president, former deputy sec. of state; honest, focused and very intelligent man with a real grip of the issues and problems America faces abroad
James Baker - Sec. of State under H.W. Bush, one of the best at the job in the past 20 years and a great deal maker and *bonus* is an actual international realist and a Republican
Richard "Dick" Lugar - Knows his stuff and there's no drama around this expert Senator who is the ranking minority member on the Foreign Relations Senate Committee, *bonus* is a Republican from a state Obama carried
Chuck Hagel - Senator widely admired for his straight-talk and positive vision *bonus* Republican, a realist
John Kerry - Long-time democratic Senator, former Presidential candidate, No. 2 Democrat on the Foreign Relations Cmte.

Secretary of Defense
Robert Gates - Current Secretary. I have written previously about his courage and true patriotism in helping our troops and keeping America safe in every way he can, *bonus* is well respected on both sides of the aisle, won't seem like changing horses midstream
Robert Zoellick - Former president of the World Bank, knows the ins and outs of foreign- policy as well as being a Washington insider


Secretary of the Treasury
David Lipton - Former under secretary of the Treasury
Hillary Clinton - Remember her? Yup, Her name has come up for this position because she's from New York (sorta) and knows how to play hardball with Wall Street, *bonus* A conciliation gift from the victor, get her out of the Senate - an enemy is best kept close
Warren Buffet - Maybe the Sage of Omaha will know how to invest America's money in such a way that businesses don't disappear and the taxpayer is protected from Big Business's foibles, *bonus* Everybody knows and respects this guy.. he is the American dream - Midwestern No one into Richest Man on Earth
Unknown - a Wall Street Veteran with some Government experience, probably from the Big Bank sector

Dems Round Up: Part One

So, the Democratic Convention has been going on for a couple days and it has been a nonstop rhetoric-spewin' Obama-lovin' party as to be expected. There have been a few memorable speeches and quotes so far. I'll give you the highlights!



Michelle Obama: Pretty damn good. She showed a different side of Barack Obama as a family man. It was a well delivered speech even considering she is not a politician and isn't probably use to delivering speeches to convention centers packed with people. She had some fire and passion and set up a great opening for Democrats to begin to get the word out on Obama the man to independents.

Hillary Clinton: It sounded great. She said all the right things. Something though... was missing. That something was sincerity and true emotion. I know some of you think I just criticize her constantly but it is true. her speech felt like just that.. a speech. She could have been a housewife who had just been given a few thousand dollars to give a speech on Economics. There was no passion or even a feeling of true belief in Obama, her party's candidate. Guess someone is a bitter, clingy, and self-described gun-toter... and it sure isn't middle America.

Dennis Kucinich: Wow! Seriously... Dennis is crazy, even his supporters know it and will admit it after five minutes of discussion of the cartoonish character that is Congressman Kucinich but he delivered a great spirited speech. His refrain of "Wake up, America!" was repeated after every attack on Republicans. Whether you agreed with the rhetoric or not you had to admit it was a pretty engergizing speech and it got people crazy excited. Now if only he was sane the other 96% of the time....

Mark Warner: Yawwwn, even a day later I'm still bored just hearing his name. His speech was just a bunch of "hope" and "change" without any passion or energy. If this is the Democrat's next big thing.. then look forward to a Republican victory in the future. Oh yeah - Dude.. Mark, tone down the makeup, your face looked like it was made of putty.

Jimmy Carter: Boy.. talk about slow. The only reason Jimmy Carter made it to this list is because he is a former President.. otherwise, it was just a disinteresting sidenote.

Memorable Quotes:

"No Way, No How, No McCain"
"Sisterhood of the Traveling Pantsuits"
-- Hillary Clinton (D-NY)

“Between now and November, I predict that the oil companies will hold out on oil prices a little bit... you know, to try to get the Republicans the ticket.”
--Former President Jimmy Carter

"Four more months"
"That's not a maverick, that's a sidekick"
-- Senator Bob Casey (D-PA)

Mark Penn: Consider me Great

Mark Penn, former Hilary Clinton Strategist, soaking up the spotlight

It is always disgusting watching someone praise themselves, boast endlessly, and then give themselves a big pat on the back... if it is all undeserved and quite ordinary. Mark Penn, Hilary Clinton's former chief political strategist is just one of those people. Obviously anyone who works for Hilary Clinton is suspect... but this guy keeps taking the cake, time after time.

This time Mr. Penn has decided the best course of action would be to open his mouth and talk about John McCain. One would guess that a Democratic consultant of such stature would be able to offer some pretty blistering attacks.. but Nooooo, Mr. Penn was admiring and praising McCain's recent ad targeting Obama's "celebrity status." Hmm.. it's like he's a little bitter..

If it wasn't bad enough that he's out there praising his opponent, he then goes out and claims that his 3 A.M. ad, like the McCain Paris Hilton/Brittany Spears ad, is among the very best in terrible but effective ads. Here's what he says:

"Fair or not, as advertising it did its job: It used humor, stuck viewers withmemorable images and created a debate, just as Lyndon Johnson's 1964 'Daisy' ad,Walter Mondale's 'Red Phone' spot 20 years later and Hillary Rodham Clinton's '3a.m.' commercial in 2008 did," Penn wrote.

Super. Now this guy has got to be amongst the dirtiest of all campaign strategist. He basically claims that if the tactic is effective, then should be used. Obviously, Mark didn't take a rudimentary course in ethics and lost his moral compass long, long ago. Using scare tactics, misleading claims, and straight up lies is the work of desperate politicians who are willing to do anything to get into and stay in power. (Remind you of anyone... HRC)

Mark Penn, You disgust me.

Same to You, PUMAs, but that's for another day....


Strong Moderate

Hillary's Media Shenanigans

Hillary Clinton has a secret you don't know about...
and you won't, either.

Hillary Clinton's campaign has led a strong effort on keeping the lid on their most embarrassing moments, ties, and comments. Clinton's Communications Director Howard Wolfson has been at the helm of the media control, crisis management, and sometimes story suppression. The question arises of just how does the Clinton campaign control the media surrounding her so well?

Many stories criticizing the Clinton campaign have come out but the most damaging stories have stayed relatively quiet (a campaign staffer, Mickey Kantor, calling Indiana's people "s**t") in comparison to the Obama campaign's disastrous media control ( Rev. Wright ring a bell?) The Clinton campaign is using some very heavy leverage to stop big media outlets from publicizing her most embarrassing stories, access to Bill Clinton.

Former president Clinton will always be a news story, win or lose for Hillary, and the Clinton campaign are betting their chips that no media outlet is going to want to jeopardize their access to him just to run a hot story on Hillary. So far, the pressure has worked. Barack Obama on the other hand has been sorely missing a good media crisis response team and it is costing him heavily. The Wright controversy and the "bitter" comments cost him a closer finish in Pennsylvania and are seriously hurting his numbers among whites, blue collar workers, and rural voters.

One of the Achilles heels of Hillary Clinton is the perception (rightly so, I believe) that she is disingenuous and ready to do anything to get what she wants. These media suppression tactics are definitely feeding into that perception and are not helping her readiness if in a huge coup she takes the Democratic nomination. Chances are that somewhere down the line, Republicans are going to really turn up the heat and expose something that she will be unable to suppress and what will happen next will be a toss-up, either a well-planned crisis management plan or a complete meltdown. That being said Obama who now has much more experience taking heavy media fire is really going to have to work on his team's response management, time after time his response has been too slow, too weak or too philosophical. Obama is really going to need to get his responses ready and right before the convention if he wants to show super-delegates he has a chance against a GOP that seems to be almost in desperation to take the White House again.

In Conclusion,

Hillary Clinton needs to.. "man" up and start taking some real heat, stop dodging the media
Barack Obama needs to.. work on his responses to attacks, win Indiana in spite of the scandals
John McCain needs to.. raise money, describe his own plan on how to make the situation in Iraq better, raise money, outline his plans for the economy and health care, raise money, just keep cruising until June.

Links:

Newsbusters: Story on another Clinton Campaign Finance Fiasco
Newsbusters: Is the Honeymoon over?
CNN: Hillary's Rove Tacitics

We have a Winner!

UPDATE - 11:45PM CST

With 99% reporting, the count is the same - 55% for Clinton, 45% to Obama. A big defeat for Obama but he did make some gains in the state since five weeks ago when most polls put him 20 points behind. Obama won 7 counties, including the city of Philadelphia, and Clinton won every other county... so the Obama effect was localized mostly to the southeast corner and center of the state. Up next, on May 6th is Indiana and North Carolina, both expected to be double digit wins for Obama. Well.. a long road lay ahead, and StrongModerate Blog will be there every step of the way! Good Night and Good Luck.


UPDATE - 10:26PM CST

93% reporting, Obama now up to 6 counties, but no gains overall still a 10 percent divide. Clinton patted herself profusely on the back in her victory speech.. Obama on the other hand tried to push the focus to the future, such as North Carolina, where the outlook is a lot sunnier. In terms of pledged delegates, 77 have been awarded - 40 to Clinton, 37 to Obama.

We'll be back one more time.. when we reach 99 or 100% of the vote.. stay tuned!

UPDATE - 9:50PM CST

79% reporting now, and Obama has 6 counties (the 6th being only by 2 points). The lead has stayed at ten points statewide 55-45. Now with over 75% of the largest three cities reporting, Clinton has a lock on Pittsburgh and Allentown and Obama has locked in a big victory in Philadelphia. In terms of pledged delegates, 73 have been awarded - 40 to Clinton, 33 to Obama.

More analysis as more information becomes available..

UPDATE - 9:17PM CST

Now with 61% of the vote in, Obama has control over 6 counties, Clinton doing well in every other one (there are two counties with no precincts reporting). Clinton now leads by 10 percentage points, which is above and beyond the hopes of victory the Clinton campaign had dreamed of and well above the six to eight percentage points that the Obama campaign had thought it would lose by.. I'll bet Obama is already dreaming of how much different North Carolina's Primary night will be like.

UPDATE - 9:01PM CST

With 51% of the count in, it looks like an eight point lead for Clinton. She now has taken Pittsburgh (by 12%) but Philadelphia and Harrisburg are still Obama zones by 22 and 26 points respectively.

The state is going more and more towards Hillary as Obama has a lead in only 4 counties.

More soon..

8:37PM CST

With just 6% of the vote counted CNN, then every other news outlet known to mankind, projected that Hillary Clinton would win the Pennsylvania primary. Wow.. how predictive of them!

We all knew that HRC would win, the question is by how much. Obama is doing well in urban areas (as he traditionally has) and Hillary is doing very well.. everywhere else, guess rural voters were a little "bitter". Obama has kept it close by keeping his lead in urban areas well above double digits in people-rich cities like Philly, Harrisburg, and Pittsburgh. Hillary however is keeping up with by winning almost every other country by around 60%.

As usual, the Clinton campaign is hailing this as a huge victory that will propel her to the nomination, however there is a distinct possibility that like the "victory" in Texas the majority of the state's delegates could go to Obama after the Super-Delegates make up their minds.

More analysis forthcoming...



For an interactive map, visit CNN's Pennsylvania Primary Results page
and CNN oft-updated coverage, here

Are We Done Yet...? Penn Primary

Now that about a dozen years after the end of the Texas primary, the Pennsylvania primary is finally underway.

Honestly, I have to predict that the vote will be about 5 points in Hilary's favor but since the Democrats don't care much for the popular vote it could turn out that Obama wins by virtue of the Super-Delegates (as he did in Texas).

The last "big" state in the democratic primaries (in population, Montana.. no disrespect) the competition was fierce and totally insane. Clinton and Obama will probably come out of this wishing they were born without a mouth to misspeak (anyone "bitter"?), a brain to mis-remember (duck.. its a sniper disguised as a little girl with a poem!), or a body to be present for anything (All-White Country clubs, Black Churches with disgruntled pastors, being married to Bill, being Black.. the list goes on).

I know that the madness won't stop for quite awhile.. but at least the citizens of one state won't be assailed for five long weeks of rhetoric and negative attacks for another 3 or so years when the next crop of Candidates start campaigning 2 years early again.

Now all we can do is relax while the people vote.. and wait for the results to come out.. and the news media to be filled with more spinning and scratching than a DJ Convention (or if you in Texas, that would be "chopped and screwed").

We will be back to provide to the feedback frenzy when the polls close, enjoy the peace while you can!

CNN Links:

Places to Watch In Penn Primary

Obama Lowers expectations of Primary

Obama: Wooing Republicans in Penn.

Senator Obama (D-IL) announced this week at a campaign stop that even Republicans would be better than current President Bush. At his campaign stop in Pennsylvania he stated "Either Democrat would be better than John McCain," he said. "And all three of us would be better than George Bush."

Why? Why would he do this? Obviously, he is trying to steal away any Republican support for Hillary Clinton (D-NY) before the Penn. Primary. Wooing Republicans and Independents just before the primary is a smart tactic considering how contested each democrat's vote is but now less than 48 hours before voters hit the polls he also needs to try to sway the swing voters who are still undecided.

An abysmal ABC debate hardly let either candidate state their case cohesively to the voters and now Obama is dominating the airwaves, Clinton is stepping up her rhetorical attacks and both candidates are going more negative than they had dared to go before.

So, maybe Obama did not praise McCain as much as he just tried to praise his own ability to work across the aisle no matter who is President. Smart Tactic... will it work? Only Pennsylvanians can tell us in a few days time.

Bloomberg: President is a Child

Mayor Bloomberg (I) and Governator Schwarzenegger (R) were just having a lovely little press conference, talking about everything from trade policy to jokes, when Mayor Bloomberg decided, in response to a question about backing a Presidential candidate, to give a little editorial on what he thinks of the current Administration. It wasn't pretty.

He said he needed to investigate each candidates position carefully before making a decision, blah, blah, blah.. then in praising the three candidates said that "at least we would have an adult" in the White House. Hmm... so that makes President Bush's policies childish... how true, how true Wow, Bloomy, didn't think you had it in you!

Mayor Bloomberg and Gov. Schwarzenegger are a guys I respect a lot, they aren't tied to a single political party and generally do what they thinks is right not what the political winds and whims of pollsters point them to. The "I" that comes after Bloomberg's name is well-deserved, he is a credit to bi-partisan politics and the "R" for the Governator points back to the good ol' days of Republicans who could work with people across the aisle to make real progress and make this nation better for everyone.

Teflon or Krazy: Obama, Hilary & McCain

Following up on a New York Times blog article titled "Krazy Glue Moments" which discusses why some we (the electorate) have different perceptions of candidate's gaffes, mistakes, and misdeeds depending on who they are and what they say. Why for instance do I still remember that damn turkey farm of Nelson's and that McCain angers easily but have to be reminded that Obama is a smoker and that Hilary was a Republican before she was a Democrat. So let's rate each of our Presidential Candidates according to their ability to deflect or attract negative attention. The scoring will be as follows: 0 is completely immune to being attacked for mistakes (aka being Reaganesque) to 10 being unable to sneeze without being lambasted for it.

Hilary Clinton: Can this woman catch a break?! No. She can't. The general perception of Hilary is that she will do (or say) anything to get into the White House (as a President this time). Therefore, anything that she says that is untrue feeds to that perception that she is will lie, cheat or steal in order to dupe more people into supporting her. Furthermore, over the years she hasn't exactly been making friends with the media or with Republicans and Independents.. so what your reap, is what you sow. Oh, and it doesn't help that you completely fabricate a story about how heroic you were in Bosnia, see video evidence totally discrediting you, then say that sleep deprivation made you say it, amend the story, have more video evidence come up, amend the story again, then be discredited a third time by dozens of witnesses and further video evidence.
Score: 8


Barack Obama: He's new, young, looks good, and he's black. If he was an athlete this would be a sure recipe for disaster, but for a politician it means no matter what he says (attacking Pakistan), or what he does (go to a Church of rather bigoted people), or what he thinks (hmm.. too many to list) is not going to make headlines for long. If all fails his campaign can always play the "They say that about him because he's black!" card, which if used seldom but effectively can make some pretty big problems go away. The Obama crisis management goes like this after a mistake or misdeed becomes public: 1) vaguely say that it was misunderstood, 2) claim it comes from the GOP or Clinton campaigns, 3) do something "courageous" like giving a speech on racism, 4) blame it on racists.. white racists, that is, 5) let friendly media outlets take care of it. It's a damn good plan.
Score: 2

John McCain: Well, he is a target for both Hilary and Obama camps but he is a war hero so you can't exactly criticize him too much (unless he threw away his medals..) McCain definitely has had his share of verbal gaffes describing himself as a "conservative.. liberal... republican" and discussing the support Iran was giving its enemy - Al Queda. Being a target of the entire Democratic party and the far right wing of the Republican party has not helped him out in the media. Although one might expect FOX News to be completely enamoured with the GOP nominee they seen to hold some disdain that he prefers MSNBC to them and therefore isn't even guaranteed positive coverage there!
Score: 6



And just for fun, Nebraska's (relevant or semi-relevant) Senate candidates.

Mike Johanns: The only words that could derail M.J. from becoming Nebraska's next senator are "I am a gay American". If he steers clear of those words.. he is a shoe-in and no matter what the media reports the is going to be elected by at least a twenty point margin. The only thing coming between him and being totally teflon is that the Farm Bill isn't exactly structured the way eachd farmer wants it to be. Besides that no matter what Ben Nelson or anyone else says... this non-charismatic Iowa farm boy will be our next Senator.

Score: 1

Scott Kleeb & Tony Raimondo: The truth hurts for NE Dems but the only way these two will ever get any real media coverage is either going negative or having very public nervous breakdowns. So in that sense no one is really paying enough attention to have anything stick to them kind of like when Mike Gravel cursed for a complete minute while discussing 'corporations', remember that? Didn't think so. So, for that reason NE Dem candidates for Senate get a new rating... the infamous and irrelevant -1.

Score: -1

Oh Snap! Clinton wins TX, OH

Oh woe is you, Obamites! Rejoice, Hillaroons! Pop open the Champagne, McCainians and Republicans everywhere.

By winning the Ohio, Texas, and ever-important Rhode Island primaries Hillary Clinton has shown that she's got some fight left in her (some of it coming from her own pocket apparently). Which means yesterday was a double holiday for Republicans who are licking their chops thinking about a Clinton-McCain Match-up after John McCain clinched the GOP nomination by crushing the Huckster four final times on Super Tuesday (Part Deux).

The question now is how Obama and Hillary will/have change their strategies. Obama could focus on the Apr. 22nd primary in Pennsylvania (which would look a little desperate) or waste what could be valuable time trying to gain some momentum by visiting and raising support in the primaries leading up to April, Wyoming and Mississippi. Clinton on the other hand seems to be doing well in the "big" states that she campaigns non-stop in, so she will probably continue her "Rudy" approach.

... And McCain can just sit back, hope that Hillary wins, and snipe at both of them while he waits for at least a month and a half for a nominee to emerge. Also, he could do very well taking some advise from Republican and "Conservative" strategists (read Neo-Cons) as to how to shed his ability to act bi-partisan and start looking more like a Bush Administration. I'm warning you Sen. McCain, if Obama is the Democratic nominee you'd better start remembering that how you use to be pre-2000 or else there will be a bit of a problem catching the pesky independent votes you NEED to be president.

Obama: Hagel for top Cabinet Position

Sen. Obama (D-IL), supremely confident in his chances of success in the Texas and Ohio primaries, has already begun talks of cabinet choices with his top advisers. Among names brought up by Obama and his aides for the office of Secretary of State or Defense is the name of the one and only, Sen. Chuck Hagel. Hagel is probably the most outspoken Republican critic of the Iraq war and not seeking re-election in 2008 (due to opposition in Nebraska by Republicans who cannot see past his stance on Iraq to see he is one of the most conservative voices in the Senate).

That kind of talk produces a few questions:

1.Would that appointment wise?

A: For Obama getting a few Republicans on his side would be a top priority for the Senator rated the most liberal in the past session. Hagel is a very knowledgeable person when it comes to the military and the state of affairs in the world. As a member of the Senate Foreign Affairs and Select Intelligence Committees (but not the Armed Services Committee) he certainly spends at least a couple hours a day pouring over intelligence reports and examining foreign policy. So in terms of knowledge the guy knows his stuff for the job of Secretary of State.

Final Answer: No, Obama has so many (Democratic) options for Sec. of State that there is no real reason to appoint Hagel

As for Secretary of Defense, Hagel seems perfect but he does face a few problems...
Sen. Hagel is a decorated Hero of Vietnam, a Purple Heart recipient (twice), one of two members of the Senate involved in ground operations during the Vietnam Conflict, former head of the USO, a former deputy administrator in the Dept. of Veteran Affairs under Reagan, he has fought tirelessly for benefits and protection for the military, and has c0-authored many bills and amendments relating to assistance for military families. On the other hand, his outspoken opposition to the Iraq War has led to his being labeled as being a person who 'opposes the mission of the DoD'. He is well-known for his aggressive and sometimes blunt questioning of Bush Administration and Military officials about the way the War is being conducted. Obama obviously agrees with this kind of questioning but since his departure in 1982 from the Department of Veteran Affairs he is now seen more or less of an outsider who is neither a friend nor a foe of the Dept. of Defense.

Final Answer: Yes, Hagel has a passion for Military Affairs and definitely has the ambition to serve to evolve the Department of Defense.

2.Will this result in sort of odd couple similar to Sec. of Defense Cohen with President (Bill) Clinton? or is this just talk to persuade anti-war Republicans to vote for Obama in a showdown with Sen. John "Gung-Ho" McCain?

A: Hmmm. Let's think to ourselves of famous Generals or Military related figures who are Democrats.. three names come to mind Rep. Murtha, Gen. Wesley Clark and Sen. Jim Webb. Now, let's review why they won't work: 1) Murtha is the member of Congress using earmarks for absolute Pork the MOST, 2) Gen. Clark is in love with the Clintons and is too political, 3) Webb would be a pretty good choice but he is a bit green and could run for president in '12 if McCain wins the presidency or run in '16 if Obama/Clinton win. So it does seem like a great option for Obama to pick Hagel however he will have to be careful not too ruffle Hagel's feather's too early otherwise Hagel will reject him and Obama's bipartisan cred will be quite low.

Final Answer: Right now it looks like there is a 65% chance that an appointment of Hagel to an Obama cabinet would work.

3. Would Senator Hagel accept?

A: Tough Question. If he were pressured early to stand up or support Obama against McCain he would automatically turn down Obama. After all, Hagel is loyal to the Republican Party and would never try to hurt one of his best friend's chances of seizing the White House (no matter how much of a War Hawk McCain may be). Let's not forget that McCain and Hagel are still very close friends, have neighboring offices in the Senate, and (besides votes on the Iraq War) have very similar records. Also, there is no way Hagel will come out in any direct way against McCain
unless he has been guaranteed a spot with Obama and there is no way Obama will guarantee Hagel a spot before the Election (publicly) without a lot of serious heat from Democratic Party insiders who remember either all of his positions on social issues or his virulent opposition to Bill Clinton.

Final Answer: If Obama played his cards right, he could snag Hagel as Secy of Defense if elected.



Think I'm wrong? Feel free to comment!


P.S. Sorry about the short hiatus, more on the way soon!